Tony’s Week 10 Preview

The playoff analysis contained in this article is valid before games are played on Thursday, 11/1. After that point, once Week 10 results come in, the analysis may well change. I’ll try to update the relevant analysis after each night’s results.

 

All rankings are THSCA regional rankings.

Game 1: Pearland Dawson (5-3, 3-2) at Alief Hasting (4-4, 2-3)

Thursday, 11/1, 7:00pm, Crump Stadium, Houston

 

These two teams have met the last two years and each team won once.

Dawson would clinch a playoff berth with a win. The Eagles have made the playoffs the last nine consecutive year. The Eagles enter the game on a three-game winning streak. The Eagles are in good position to make the playoffs even with a loss but a playoff berth would be far from garunteed.

Hastings would not clinch a playoff berth with a win. But with the schedules the remainder of the year, they would likely make the playoffs with a win in this game. With a loss in this game, the Bears would likely wind up in a 3-way tie for 4^th that they would likely win.

 

Pearland Dawson Year-To-Date
Week 1 – Conroe Oak Ridge – W 34-21
Week 2 – Summer Creek – W 33-14
Week 3 – Dickinson – L 6-34
Week 5 – Strake Jesuit – L 32-55
Week 6 – Pearland – L 27-56
Week 7 – Brazoswood – W 50-14
Week 8 – George Ranch – W 33-14
Week 9 – Alief Taylor – W 28-21

 

Alief Hastings Year-To-Date
Week 1 – Jersey Village – W 34-18
Week 2 – Cypress Falls – L 7-21
Week 3 – Fort Bend Kempner – W 52-20
Week 5 – Alief Elsik – W 51-13
Week 6 – George Ranch – W 35-20
Week 7 – Strake Jesuit – L 17-29
Week 8 – Alief Taylor – L 14-33
Week 9 – Pearland – L 7-41

 

Projections

Calpreps favors Dawson 28 – 27.

Masey Ratings favors Dawson 35 – 28.

 

 

Game 2: Needville (5-2, 3-1) 4AD1 Region 4 #7 at Brazosport (4-4, 3-1) 4AD1 Region 4 #10

Friday, 11/2, 7:30pm, Hooper Stadium, Freeport

 

Needville has won three of the four game between these two schools. Brazosport won last year’s game 63-34.

Needville clinches a playoff berth with a win in this game. This would be the Blue Jays first playoff berth since 2015. Blue Jays may make the playoffs even with a loss, but they face Sealy next week and they will be an underdog in that contest and would need to have other games break their way.

Brazosport clinches a playoff berth with a win in this game. This would be the Exporters second consecutive playoff appearance following missing the playoffs the previous 8 years. Brazosport plays first-year school Fulshear next week and would likely make the playoffs with a win in the game, even if they lose to Needville this week.

 

Needville Year-To-Date
Week 1 – Houston Sam Houstson – W 55-0
Week 2 – St. Thomas – W 64-58
Week 3 – CC Calallen – L 41-61
Week 4 – Yoakum – L 21-42
Week 5 – El Campo – W 64-41
Week 6 – Bay City – W 62-42
Week 7 – West Columbia – L 28-31
Week 9 – Fulshear – W 42-39

 

Freeport Brazosport Year-To-Date
Week 1 – Hitchcock – L 8-22
Week 2 – Sweeny – L 6-31
Week 3 – Edna – L 3-42
Week 4 – Houston North Forest – W 54-19
Week 6 – Sealy – L 14-40
Week 7 – El Campo – W 34-28
Week 8 – Bay City – W 27-26
Week 9 – West Columbia – W 24-17

Projections

Calpreps favors Needville 38 – 34.

Masey Ratings Needville 42 – 38.

 

 

Game 3: Tompkins (8-1, 4-1) 6A Region 3 #11 at Cinco Ranch (2-6, 2-2)

Saturday, 11/3, 11:00am, Legacy Stadium, Katy

Day, Date, Time, Stadium, City

 

Cinco Ranch has won all four meetings between these two schools. Cinco Ranch won last year’s game 35-28.

Tompkins has already clinched their first playoff appearance in the school’s five-year history. Prior to this year, the Falcons had a total of five wins in four years. A win in this game clinches 2^nd place in the district for the Falcons.

Cinco Ranch can neither clinch the playoffs with a win nor be eliminated with a loss in this game. The outcome of the Week 11 game against Seven Lakes will determine the Cougars playoff fate. But if the Cougars lose this game, the best they can finish in district is 4^th. Win this game and they still could still finish as high as 2^nd in district.

 

Tompkins Year-To-Date
Week 1 – Fort Bend Austin – W 38-21
Week 2 – Klein Cain – W 58-13
Week 3 – Alvin – W 70-7
Week 4 – Clear Creek – W 38-7
Week 5 – Seven Lakes – W 15-10
Week 6 – Katy – L 13-66
Week 7 – Mayde Creek – W 49-28
Week 8 – Morton Ranch – W 15-8
Week 9 – Katy Taylor – W 27-24

 

Cinco Ranch Year-To-Date
Week 1 – Cypress Ranch – L 21-32
Week 2 – Jersey Village – L 48-50
Week 3 – Pearland – L 28-56
Week 4 – Cedar Park – L 13-14
Week 5 – Mayde Creek – W 44-28
Week 6 – Morton Ranch – W 44-17
Week 7 – Katy Taylor – L 17-33
Week 9 – Katy – L 17-70

 

Projections

Calpreps favors Tompkins 35 – 28.

Masey Ratings favors Cinco Ranch 35 – 30.

 

 

Game 4: Montgomery (3-5, 3-2) at Paetow (3-5, 1-4)

Saturday, 11/3, 2:00pm, Rhodes Stadium, Katy

 

This will be the first meeting between the two schools.

Montgomery is currently tied for 3^rd place in 10-5AD2 with Bryan Rudder. The Bears have only made the playoffs once in the last four years (2016). The Bears come into this game on a two-game winning streak. Unless Lake Creek pulls the stunning upset on Friday night, a Montgomery win in this game would clinch a playoff spot for the Bears.

Paetow would have to win this game, their Week 11 game against Lamar Consolidated, and have several other upsets occur to have any chance of making the playoffs. A loss in this game would officially eliminate the Panthers from playoff contention. The Panthers enter the game on a four-game losing streak.

 

Montgomery Year-To-Date
Week 1 – Vidor – L 14-42
Week 2 – Barbers Hill – L 21-42
Week 3 – Magnolia – L 14-42
Week 5 – Bryan Rudder – W 46-22
Week 6 – College Station A&M Consolidated – L 6-39
Week 7 – Huntsville – L 0-42
Week 8 – Cleveland – W 52-21
Week 9 – Lamar Consolidated – W 41-24

Katy Paetow Year-To-Date
Week 1 – Stafford – L 14-41
Week 2 – Houston Northbrook – W 24-7
Week 3 – Fort Bend Clements – W 30-28
Week 5 – Cleveland – W 13-6
Week 6 – Lake Creek – L 7-25
Week 7 – Bryan Rudder – L 14-53
Week 8 – College Station A&M Consolidated – L 0-48
Week 9 – Huntsville – L 0-48

 

Projections

Calpreps favors Montgomery 38 – 12.

Masey Ratings Montgomery 41 – 7.

 

 

Game 5: Bellaire (4-5, 3-2) Ranking at Heights (2-6, 2-2) Ranking

Saturday, 11/3, 6:00pm, Delmar Stadium, Houston

 

Bellaire leads the all time series between the two schools 16 games to 10 game. Heights won las year’s meeting 31-12.

Bellaire clinches a playoff berth with a win in this game. With a loss in this game, the Cardinals would likely need Houston Westside to lose one of their remaining two games to make the playoffs. Houston Westside is current 1-3 in district, but heavily favored in their final two games, and beat Bellaire last week, 27-21. The Cardinals have made the playoffs the last eight consecutive years.

A win in this game does not clinch a playoff spot for Houston Heights. And a loss in this game does not eliminate the Bulldogs from playoff contention. But with the likely results in the rest of the district, a Heights win would put the Bulldogs in very good playoff position. The Bulldogs have made the playoffs the last seven consecutive years.

 

Houston Bellaire Year-To-Date
Week 1 – Beaumont West Brook – L 0-55
Week 2 – Pasadena Dobie – L 33-42
Week 3 – Aldine MacArthur – W 41-27
Week 4 – Clear Falls – L 46-69
Week 5 – Houston Westbury – W 43-0
Week 6 – Houston Sam Houston – W 56-28
Week 7 – Houston Chavez – W 21-14
Week 8 – Houston Lamar – L 7-30
Week 9 – Houston Westside – L 21-27

 

Houston Heights Year-To-Date
Week 1 – Spring DeKaney – L 12-24
Week 2 – New Caney – L 14-38
Week 3 – Brenham – L 12-13
Week 4 – Seven Lakes – L 13-30
Week 5 – Houston Sam Houston – W 62-0
Week 6 – Houston Chavez – L 31-33
Week 7 – Houston Lamar – L 21-33
Week 8 – Houston Westside – W 41-20

 

Projections

Calpreps favors Heights 28 – 22.

Masey Ratings favors Heights 35 – 21.