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Greater Houston Area Preview Week 4

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Five Houston area districts started district play last week. Here’s a look back at last week, how that affected my views on the districts, and a look at those same districts for the upcoming week.
Each week I’ll look back at my view of each district from the prior week, district results from the prior week, how/if those results changed my view of the district, games for the coming week, and a couple of projections based on statistical models.In the listings below I’ll list the Calpreps projection followed by the Massey Ratings projections; Team 1 vs. Team 2 (Calpreps projection, Massey Ratings projection).


14-6A
What I said Last Week: “Entering district play, I have 14-6A as 1- Cy Ranch; 2- Tomball Memorial; 3,4 – Cy Woods and Langham Creek. Also keeping an eye on Bridgeland as the Bears enter there second varsity season and look to be much improved.”

The results from last week were:
Cy Ranch 55, Langham Creek 7
Cy Woods 31, Tomball Memorial 28
Bridgeland 38, Cy Springs 0
Cy Lakes 61-28.
Cy Ranch and Bridgeland bettered the projections in their victories. Cy Lakes’ 33 point win was in line with the projections. Cy Woods upset the projections with their win over Tomball Memorial.


And those results muddle up the district.
For now, I’ll have the district as 1-Cy Ranch and 2-5 being Cy Woods, Tomball Memorial, Langham Creek, and Bridgeland in no particular order.

The week the games are:
Cy Ranch vs. Bridgeland (Cy Ranch by 12, Cy Ranch by 28)
Cy Woods vs. Langham Creek (Cy Woods by 21, Cy Woods by 1)
Bryan vs. Tomball Memorial (Tomball Memorial by 22, Tomball Memorial by 21)
Cy Lakes vs. Cy Springs (Cy Lakes by 27, Cy Lakes by 22)
Cy Park is open.

The key games are Cy Woods/ Langham Creek and Cy Ranch/ Bridgeland. A Cy Woods victory would make the Wildcats the clear #2 in my mind. And we will see if Bridgeland is ready for the big stage against Cy Ranch.


15-6A
What I said last week: “Entering district play, I have 1,2 – The Woodlands and Klein Collins; 3- Klein Oak; 4-Klein.”

The results from last week were:
The Woodlands 20, Oakridge 14
Klein Collins 49, Klein Forest 21
Klein 31, Klein Oak 28
Conroe 28, College Park 17
The Woodlands won but underperformed projections. Klein Collins won but slightly under performed projections. Klein upset the projects with their win as did Conroe.

With my #4 beating my #3, I’ll flop those two this week.
For now I’ll have this as 1, 2 – The Woodlands and Klein Collins; 3- Klein; 4- Klein Oak.

This schedule this week is:
Klein Collins vs. Oakridge (Kelin Collins by 25, Klein Collins by 24)
The Woodlands vs. College Park (The Woodlands by 17, The Woodlands by 28)
Klein vs. Klein Cain (Klein by 15, Klein by 28)
Klein Oak vs. Conroe (Klein Oak by 1, Klein Oak by 28)
Klein Forest is open.

Very interesting that Calpreps has the Klein Oak/ Conroe game so close but Massey Ratings doesn’t. If Conroe is competitive in the game that would not be good for Klein Oak following their loss the Klein.


17-6A
What I said last week: “Entering district play, I have 1-Cy-Fair; 2-Cy Falls; 3,4- Cy Ridge, Jersey Village, Cy Creek.”

The results from last week were:
Cy Fair 56, Northbrook 0
Cy Falls 28, Cy Creek 17
Cy Ridge 42, Jersey Village by 8
Stratford 44, Spring Woods 0
Cy Fair meet the projections in their win. Cy Falls wins in a game that was split in the projections. Cy Ridge wins in another game that was split in the projections. A Stratford meet the projections in their win.

These results provide a little clarity (for now) in the middle.
For now I’ll have this as 1 – Cy Fair; 2- Cy Falls; 3 – Cy Ridge; 4, 5 – Jersey Village, Cy Creek .

This schedule this week is:
Cy Fair vs. Memorial (Cy Fair by 27, Cy Fair by 32)
Cy Falls vs. Northbrook (Cy Falls by 51, Cy Falls by 48)
Cy Ridge vs. Stratford (Cy Ridge by 18, Cy Ridge by 25)
Jersey Village vs. Cy Creek (Jersey Village by 3, Jersey Village by 1)
Spring Woods is open.
The key game is Jersey Village vs. Cy Creek which could go a long way to determining the final play spot.


22-6A
What I said last week: “Entering district play, I have 1-Atascocita; 2,3,4 – Kingwood, Summer Creek, Dobie. Also keeping as eye on Humble.”

The results from last week were:
Atascocita 70, Kingwood 10
Summer Creek 38, Pasadena Memorial 3
Humble 66, Sam Rayburn 0
South Houston 35, Pasadena 7
Dobie was open.
Atascocita won and exceeded the projections. Summer Creek pretty much matched the projections. Humble won and exceed the projections. South Houston won but were maybe slightly below projections.

For now I’ll keep this as-is: 1-Atascocita; 2,3,4 – Kingwood, Summer Creek, Dobie. Also keeping as eye on Humble.

This schedule this week is:
South Houston at Humble (Humble by 10, South Houston by 1)
Dobie at Summer Creek (Dobie by 4, Summer Creek by 15)
Pasadena Memorial vs. Pasdena (Memorial by 19, Memorial by 21)
Kingwood at Sam Rayburn (Kingwood by 43, Kingwood by 42)
Atscocita is open.

The big game is Dobie at Summer Creek. The winner takes a big step toward the playoffs.


11-5AD2
What I said last week: “Entering district play, I have 1-Fort Bend Marshall; 2-Manvel; 3- Willowridge; 4-Sterling.”

The results from last week were:
Fort Bend Marshall 59, Milby 0
Manvel 76, Sharpstown 0
Sterling 24, Waltrip 22
Northside 51, Madison 30
Willowridge was open.
Fort Bend Marshall and Manvel won a pretty much matched projections. Sterling won but in a squeaker. Northside won a game where the projections were split.

With everything at the top of the district going to chalk, this remains 1-Fort Bend Marshall; 2-Manvel; 3- Willowridge; 4-Sterling.

This schedule this week is:
Manvel at Fort Bend Marshall (Marshall by 3, Marshall by 8)
Willowridge at Waltrip (Willowridge by 20, Willowridge by 25)
Sterling vs. Sharpstown (Sterling by 34, Sterling by 34)
Northside vs. Milby (Northside by 3, Northside by 21)
Madison is open.

I don’t think I have to tell you the Manvel at Fort Bend Marshall is the game of the week in the Houston area.

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Simply put I am a fan of Texas high school football. I attend as many high school football games as I can - 82 games in 2017, 86 games in 2018, 76 games in 2019. I also have some limited computer skills and I use those to provide information to the #txhsfb community. I am always looking for new ways to provide information to the #txhsfb community. If you have ideas and suggestions, tag or DM me on Twitter.

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