Home News Greater Houston Area Preview Week 5

Greater Houston Area Preview Week 5

63
0
GHA
GHA

Five Houston area districts were in week 2 of district play last week. The remainder of 6A and 5A districts start play this week along with about 40% of the small school districts Here’s a look back at last week, how that affected my views on the districts, and a look at those same districts for the upcoming week as well as a pre-district look at the districts starting district play this week.
Each week I’ll look back at my view of each district from the prior week, district results from the prior week, how/if those results changed my view of the district, games for the coming week, and a couple of projections based on statistical models. In the listings below I’ll give the Massey Ratings projections; Team 1 vs. Team 2 (Massey Ratings projection). Next week Calpreps will begin their projections and I’ll include those as well.


14-6A
What I said Last Week: “For now, I’ll have the district as 1-Cy Ranch and 2-5 being Cy Woods, Tomball Memorial, Langham Creek, and Bridgeland in no particular order.”

The results from last week were:
Bridgeland 48, Cy Ranch 14
Cy Woods 31, Langham Creek 14
Tomball Memorial 40, Bryan 0
Cy Lakes 27, Cy Springs 7
Cy Park was open.
I was personally at the Cy Woods/ Langham Creek and Bridgeland/ Cy Ranch games. Bridgeland was incredibly impressive in their dominating win over Cy Ranch. Langham Creek does not look like a playoff contender.
Bridgeland upset the projections, Cy Woods was right in line with 1 projection and exceeded the other, Tomball Memorial better the projections a little, and Cy Lakes was right in line with projections.


A major shake up in my perceptions of this district.
For now, I’ll have the district as 1- Bridgeland; 2, 3, 4 – Tomball Memorial, Cy Woods, Cy Ranch in no particular order.
1-Cy Ranch and 2-5 being Cy Woods, Tomball Memorial, Langham Creek, and Bridgeland in no particular order.

The week the games are:
Bridgeland vs. Cypress Woods (Cy Woods by 1, so basically a pick ‘em game)
Cy Ranch vs. Cy Lakes (Cy Ranch by 21)
Bryan at Langham Creek (Langham Creek by 2, so again basically a pick ‘em game)
Cy Park vs. Cy Springs (Cy Springs by 18)
Tomball Memorial is open.

Bridgeland/ Cy Woods is a battle of two of the three remaining teams unbeaten in district play. Cy Ranch looks to right the ship against Cy Lakes and give us a read on whether or not Cy Lakes can contend for a playoff spot.


15-6A
What I said last week: “For now I’ll have this as 1, 2 – The Woodlands and Klein Collins; 3- Klein; 4- Klein Oak..”

The results from last week were:
Klein Collins 35, Oak Ridge 0
The Woodlands 34, College Park 7
Klein Cain 52, Klein 42
Klein Oak 29, Conroe 25

Klein Collins and The Woodlands pretty much performed as expected. Klein Cain upsets the apple cart with their win over Klein. Klein Oak matched one projection and underperformed the other.
The Woodlands won but underperformed projections. Klein Collins won but slightly under performed projections. Klein upset the projects with their win as did Conroe.

Those results move Klein Cain into contention for a playoff spot muddling up the 3 and 4 positions.
For now I’ll have this as 1, 2 – The Woodlands and Klein Collins; 3, 4 – Klein Oak, Klein Cain, Klein in no particular order.

This schedule this week is:
Klein Collins at College Park (Klein Collins by 27)
The Woodlands at Klein Oak (The Woodlands by 7)
Conroe at Klein Cain (Conroe by 1, so basically a pick ‘em game)
Klein Forest at Oak Ridge (Oak Ridge by 29)
Klein is open

The Conroe/Klein Cain may provide a bit a read on both teams. Both have performed much better this year than last.


16-6A
As district play opens, I have this district as 1-Westfield; 2, 3- DeKaney, Spring; 4-Aldine Eisenhower.

This schedule this week is:
Westfield vs. Spring (Westfield by 23)
Aldine MacArthur at DeKaney (DeKaney by 36)
Aldine Nimitz vs. Aldine Davis (Davis by 6)
Aldine vs Aldine Eisenhower (Eisenhower by 33)

Barring upsets, I don’t expect any of the games this week to be particular insightful.


17-6A
What I said last week: “For now I’ll have this as 1 – Cy Fair; 2- Cy Falls; 3 – Cy Ridge; 4, 5 – Jersey Village, Cy Creek .

The results from last week were:
Cy Fair 35, Memorial 3
Cy Falls 61, Northbrook 3
Stratford 27, Cy Ridge 17
Cy Creek 53, Jersey Village 9
Cy Fair and Cy Falls pretty much matched expectations. However, Stratford pulls the upset over Cy Ridge and Cy Creek pummels Jersey Village.

The results create a jumble after Cy Fair and Cy Falls.
For now I’ll have this as 1 – Cy Fair; 2- Cy Falls; 3, 4 – Cy Creek, Cy Ridge, Stratford, Jersey Village in no particular order.

This schedule this week is:
Cy Falls at Memorial (Cy Falls by 21)
Stratford at Cy Creek (Cy Creek by 17)
Cy Ridge at Spring Woods (Cy Ridge by 43)
Jersey Village at Northbrook (Jersey Village by 42)
Cy Fair is open.

Key game is Stratford at Cy Creek. Stratford is already 2-0 in district play. A win would put them 3-0 and in serious playoff contention.


18-6A
As district play opens, I have this district as 1- Lamar; 2-Chavez; 3,4 – Bellaire, Heights, Westside.

This schedule this week is:
Chavez vs. Westside (Chavez by 3)
Bellaire vs. Westbury (Bellaire by 34)
Sam Houston vs. Heights (Heights by 35)
Lamar is open

The Chavez/ Westside game should give us our first read on the district behind Lamar.


19-6A
As district play opens, I have this district as 1-Katy; 2-Tompkins; 3,4 – Taylor, Morton Ranch, Seven Lakes, Mayde Creek.

This schedule this week is:
Tompkins vs. Seven Lakes (Tompkins by 15)
Mayde Creek vs. Cinco Ranch (Mayde Creek by 7)
Morton Ranch vs. Taylor (Taylor by 6)
Katy is open

I’ll start getting a read on middle of the district with the Taylor/ Morton Ranch game.


20-6A
As district play opens, I have this district as 1,2 – Ridge Point, Travis; 3- Elkins; 4-Bush

This schedule this week is:
Travis vs. Elkins (Travis by 15)
Ridge Point vs. Kempner (Ridge Point by 28)
Bush vs. Clements (Bush by 28)
Dulles vs. Austin (Dulles by 7)

Right out of the gate we get Travis/ Elkins. With this game we may will get a read on whether or not Travis is indeed a contender for the district title.


21-6A
As district play opens, I have this district as 1- North Shore; 2- Beaumont West Brook; 3- Beaumont United; 4- CE King.

This schedule this week is:
CE King at West Brook (West Brook by 20)
Beaumont United at Sterling (United by 27)
La Porte at North Shore (North Shore by 43)
Channelview at Deer Park (Deer Park by 1)

Barring a big upset, I don’t expect any of the games this week to be particularly insightful.


22-6A
What I said last week: “For now I’ll keep this as-is: 1-Atascocita; 2,3,4 – Kingwood, Summer Creek, Dobie. Also keeping as eye on Humble.

The results from last week were:
Humble 53, South Houston 9
Dobie 36, Summer Creek 23
Pasadena Memorial 42, Pasadena 12
Kingwood 70, Sam Rayburn 6
Dobie with the “upset” of Summer Creek. Humble outperformed expectation. Pasadena Memorial and Kingwood pretty much matched expectations.

The results from last week were:
Atascocita 70, Kingwood 10
Summer Creek 38, Pasadena Memorial 3
Humble 66, Sam Rayburn 0
South Houston 35, Pasadena 7
Dobie was open.
Atascocita won and exceeded the projections. Summer Creek pretty much matched the projections. Humble won and exceed the projections. South Houston won but were maybe slightly below projections.

Time to shake this up a bit. I think Dobie deserves to be #2 and Humble deserves to be in the conversation for a playoff spot.
For now I’ll have this as : 1-Atascocita; 2-Dobie; 3,4 – Kingwood, Summer Creek, Humble in no particular order.

This schedule this week is:
Humble at Pasadena Memorial (Humble by 18)
Dobie vs. Pasadena (Dobie by 40)
Atascocita at Sam Rayburn (Atascocita by 56)
South Houston at Kingwood (Kingwood by 21)
Summer Creek is open.

I don’t expect any of the games this week to very insightful.


23-6A
As district play opens, I have this district as 1- Pearland; 2,3 – Pearland Dawson, Strake Jesuit; 4,5 – Alief Hasting, Alief Taylor.

This schedule this week is:
Pearland at Alief Taylor (Pearland by 21)
Strake Jesuit at Pearland Dawson (Strake Jesuit by 6)
Alief Hastings at Alief Elsik (Hastings by 30)
Brazoswood at George Ranch (George Ranch by 23)

And right of the gate we get a critical data point as Strake Jesuit and Pearland Dawson square off.


24-6A
As district play opens, I have this district as 1- Dickinson; 2- Clear Springs; 3 –Clear Falls; 4,5 – Clear Lake, Clear Creek.

This schedule this week is:
Clear Falls vs. Clear Springs (Clear Springs by 22)
Clear Lake at Dickinson (Dickinson by 34)
Clear Creek at Clear Brook (Clear Creek by 8)
Alvin is open


8-5AD1
As district play opens, I have this district as 1- Lufkin; 2- College Station; 3,4 – Magnolia, Magnolia West

This schedule this week is:
Willis at Lufkin (Lufkin by 37)
College Station at Caney Creek (College Station by 40)
Tomball at Magnolia West (Magnolia West by 13)
Magnolia at Waller (Magnolia by 28)

If there’s a team that could move into the top four, it’s Tomball. So critical game for the Cougars to open district play.


9-5AD1
As district play opens, I have this district as 1- New Caney; 2,3 – Port Arthur Memorial, Porter; 4 – Kingwood Park.

This schedule this week is
New Caney at Houston Wisdom (New Caney by 49)
Port Arthur Memorial at Galena Park (Port Arthur Memorial by 31)
Kingwood Park at Porter (Porter by 14)
Houston Austin vs. Goose Creek Memorial (Goose Creek by 3)

Most significant game is Kingwood Park at Porter which should start defining the ordering of the playoff teams.


10-5AD1
As district play opens, I have this district as 1- Shadow Creeek; 2- Foster; 3- Angleton; 4,5 – Hightower, Friendswood.

This schedule this week is
Shadow Creek at Angleton (Shadow Creek by 7)
Galveston Ball at Foster (Foster by 30)
Hightower at Terry (Hightower by 20)
Friendswood at Texas City (Friendswood by 24)

Shadow Creek at Angleton is a game that can give a read on where Angleton falls in 10-5AD1.


10-5AD2
As district play opens, I have this district as 1 – A&M Consolidated; 2- Huntsville; 3 – Lamar Consolidated; 4 – Paetow.

This schedule this week is:
A&M Consolidated at Huntsville (Huntsville by 2)
Lamar Consolidated at Lake Creek (Lamar Consolidated by 21)
Cleveland at Paetow (Paetow by 29)
Rudder at Montgomery (Montgomery by 2)

Big game to start district play with the teams I think will finish 1 and 2 in district playing. Massey likes Huntsville in a very close game. I’m picking A&M Consolidated to win the district, so I obviously think A&M Consolidated will win the game.


11-5AD2
What I said last week: “With everything at the top of the district going to chalk, this remains 1-Fort Bend Marshall; 2-Manvel; 3- Willowridge; 4-Sterling.”

The results from last week were:
Manvel 38, Marshall 35
Willowridge 34, Waltrip 6
Milby 41, Northside 34
Sterling 45, Sharpstown 0
Manvel wins the nail-bitter against FB Marshall. All else went to chalk. Time to flop Manvel and Marshall.

With the Manvel win, I now has this as 1-Manvel; 2-Fort Bend Marshall; 3- Willowridge; 4-Sterling.

This schedule this week is:
Northside at Manvel (Manvel by 45)
Fort Bend Marshall at Sterling (Marshall by 41)
Sharpstown at Willowridge (Willowridge by 45)
Madison vs. Milby (Milby by 2)
Waltrip is open

I don’t expect any of the games this week to be particularly insightful.


12-5AD2
As district play opens, I have this district as 1 – Port Neches Groves; 2,3,4 – Baytown Lee, Nederland, Barbers Hill.

This schedule this week is:
Baytown Lee at Port Neches-Groves (PNG by 17)
Dayton at Barbers Hill (Barbers Hill by 21)
Nederland at Santa Fe (Nederland by 15)
Vidor at Crosby (Crosby by 7)

I have Crosby as #5 and chance to slip into the playoffs if someone above them underperforms. They’ll need to start the season with a win over Vidor to keep that in play.


12-4AD1
As district play opens, I have this district as 1, 2- Wheatley, Navaosta; 3,4,5 – Furr, Stafford, North Forest.

This schedule this week is:
Wheatley at North Forest (Wheatly by 3)
Navasota at Furr (Navasota by 7)
Yates at Worthing (Yates by 7)
Stafford is open

Right of the gate I’ll get some confirmation on the levels in the 12-4AD1. If Wheatley and Navasota win, then they can contend for the district title. If either one loses, it shakes up the ordering.


13-4AD1
As district play opens, I have this district as 1 – Sealy; 2,3,4 – Needville, Columbia, El Campo.

This schedule this week is:
Sealy at Fulshear (Sealy by 34)
Bay City at Columbia (Columbia by 21)
El Campo at Needville (Needville by 6)
Brazosport is open
A very telling game right of the bat as El Campo travels to Needville.


11-3AD1
As district play opens, I have this district as 1,2 – Diboll, Crockett; 3- Franklin; 4- Elkhart.

This schedule this week is:
Crockett at Trinity (Crockett by 34)
Coldspring-Oakhurst at Franklin (Franklin by 32)
Elkhart at Westwood (Elkhart by 7)
Diboll is open
I don’t see any of the games this week as being particularly insightful.


12-3AD1
As district play opens, I have this district as 1 – East Chambers; 2 – Woodville; 3, 4,5,6 – Orangefield, Warren, Hardin, Buna.

This schedule this week is:
East Chambers at Woodville (East Chambers by 15)
Buna at Orangefield (Buna by 7)
Hardin at Warren (Hardin by 9)
Kirbyville at Anahuac (Anahuac by 7)
Two games that should help clarify the 3-6 spots in 12-3AD1: Buna/ Orangefield and Hardin/ Warren.


14-3AD2
As district play opens, I have this district as 1 – East Bernard; 2 – Van Vleck; 3,4 – Ganado, TIdehaven

This schedule this week is:
East Bernard at Van Vleck (East Bernard by 18)
Danbury at Tidheaven (Tidehaven by 36)
Bloomington at Schulenberg (Schulenberg by 27)
Ganado is open.
My top two 14-3AD2 teams (East Bernard and Van Vleck) square off in the first week of district play.


12-2AD2
As district play opens, I have this district as 1 – Grapeland; 2 – Evadale; 3 – Lovelady; 4 – West Hardin

The schedule in this district is strange because it was a 7-team district at alignment but Sabine Pass dropped out prior to district play last year. As a result, there are teams playing some non-district game almost every week. I’m only going to list district games here.
This schedule this week is:
Grapeland at Evadale (Grapeland by 20)
Lovelady at Burkeville (Lovelady by 35)
West Hardin and Colmesneil are playing non-district games.
My top two 12-2AD2 teams (East Bernard and Van Vleck) square off in the first week of district play.

Previous articleGallery: Cy Woods vs. Langham Creek
Next articleGallery: Buda Hays vs. Austin Anderson
Simply put I am a fan of Texas high school football. I attend as many high school football games as I can - 82 games in 2017, 86 games in 2018, 76 games in 2019. I also have some limited computer skills and I use those to provide information to the #txhsfb community. I am always looking for new ways to provide information to the #txhsfb community. If you have ideas and suggestions, tag or DM me on Twitter.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

fifteen − thirteen =