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Markets Freeze To Measure The Recession In Joblessness

Social Security Benefits
Social Security Benefits; Source- Mint

The November payroll report is extremely important to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, which is why markets have frozen in anticipation. Throughout the week, investors have been attempting to interpret deteriorating U.S. labor market signs as recessionary warnings.

Increase In Non-Farm Payrolls

It is difficult to believe that the overall employment report will be in contradiction to the multiple employment soundings this week that indicate a loosening of the labor market. It will all be a question of degrees, though, given the enthusiasm around the rate cut on the markets.

According to the prevailing consensus estimates, non-farm payrolls increased by 180,000 last month, the unemployment rate remained at 3.9%, and annual wage growth slowed to 4.0%.

However, this week’s private sector jobs report for the same month was lower than anticipated; the weekly jobless rate increased; layoffs are rapidly increasing; job opportunities for October declined more quickly than anticipated; and employment expenses were revised down.

This month, however, there is an odd turn in the story around the much-discussed “Sahm rule” threshold. Historically, this indicates that a recession has begun when the three-month rolling average unemployment rate increases by half a percentage point above the previous year’s low.

Rise In Unemployment


(Photo: Key Point Homes)

The gauge, which was created by Fed economist Claudia Sahm prior to the pandemic as a possible guideline for when compensation payments should be made, hit 0.33% last time out for the first time since March 2021. If November’s unemployment rate rises beyond 4%, this could be cause for concern.

The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.1% for the first time since June, but it backed up by roughly 7 basis points today in front of the jobs report. In contrast, the two-year Treasury yield has been a little more cautious this week. However, Treasuries’ large movements have caused volatility gauges to rise to their highest level since October.

With the price of U.S. crude oil down 27% from September’s top and signs of disinflation and rate cuts, the market steadied and attempted to regain a foothold above $70 per barrel.

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